MED-FOES

MED-FOES is an implementation of a stochastic Agent-Based Simulation (ABS) system for analyzing demographic changes in a single population of Medfly (Ceratitis capitata) over time. The simulation currently takes population extinction as a given because it aims to give us better estimates of necessary quarantine lengths in areas where Medfly is not currently established but does repeatedly invade. Thus the objective of this software is to estimate the time to local extirpation based on known ranges of developmental, survivorship and reproductive parameters, as well as assumed ranges of an eradication pressure parameter. For a complete analysis and estimate of time to extirpation one would execute a large number of individual simulations evenly distributed over parameter space to estimate the time at which an arbitrary percentage of the simulations show extirpation.

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